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Sell High Or Hold Tight - SQ Fantasy Roundtable?

image credit: rantsports.com

So, today we’ll be discussing whether to sell high or hold on to a number of players. Here to help are SQ Fantasy analysts Connor Wipfil, Dylan Gannon, and Michael Marcantonini. First we will discuss Troy Tulowitzki. He has begun the season on an absolutely tear both on the field and in fantasy box scores, but the question is will he continue producing at this level, or is it worth taking advantage of his current fantasy trade value?

Michael Marcantonini: I think Tulo is definitely worth it. I’m buying a healthy Tulo any day.

Connor Wipfli: The thing with Tulo has always been the health issue. When he is healthy, he is a top-5 player. I am not shocked by his numbers and I even picked him to win MVP (sure to go wrong). Since I did that, I have to say he is a buy.

Dylan Gannon: Absolutely buying Tulo. Do I think his .570 average at home is sustainable? No, but he’s going to raise his road numbers. Probably hit .350 for the year. But as Connor said, health is the big thing.

Michael Marcantonini: Like Connor said he’s top 5 when healthy. He’s shown flashes of MVP talent his whole career and it looks like he’s finally putting everything together.

Connor Wipfli: I mean like Dylan said, no way is that .570 at home obtainable. But something else that is huge is how Gonzalez and others around him are producing. The Rockies are so much better when those two guys are in the lineup.

Jeremy Losak: When guys around you are producing, it sure helps the RBI number

Michael Marcantonini: I think Tulo is feeding off of the surprising production from Blackmon, the resurgence of Morneau, and Arenado before he hit the DL.

Dylan Gannon: Blackmon, Morneau, Cargo, Tulo, Rosario, Cuddyer, that Rockies offense is potent. Only the A’s have a better run margin. Tulo has too much around him for him to struggle

Jeremy Losak: I agree, but with that, I would actually hold on to him. For me as a fantasy owner, if I think a player is going to remain at their current value, I want that for myself, not really selling. But would I buy? For sure! But from the sellers point, is it worth trading someone who will continue to put up top SS fantasy numbers?

Michael Marcantonini: I wouldn’t trade Tulo unless I got a top 5 fantasy player in return at another position. He’s too valuable, especially at SS. Way too valuable to lose without a kings ransom in return right now

Jeremy Losak: So what’s the final verdict: Sell high or hold on to him?

Connor Wipfli: Hold for me

Jeremy Losak: Okay moving on. Let’s talk about Seth Smith, a guy who is absolutely on fire with a .317 BA, 6 HRs, 20 RBI and runs on the season. What’s your take on him?

Michael Marcantonini: Sell. I don’t see him continuing his hot streak for too much longer.

Jeremy Losak: How come?

Michael Marcantonini: He’s a streaky hitter, and that worries me. Plus he plays in Petco park which is a notorious pitchers park.

Connor Wipfli: I have always been someone who tries to find someone who is hot and pick him up. Then immediately try and trade him. Smith had been around for awhile so it’s not like he is unknown. Playing half the games at petco doesn’t help either.

Michael Marcantonini: I love the “trade ‘em while they’re hot” strategy

Jeremy Losak: But there has to be some stock in the fact that he’s walking at a career high rate and striking out at a career low rate.

Connor Wipfli: There is always the possibility he has turned the corner, similar to a Bautista. I just don’t think he has the same power stroke.

Michael Marcantonini: Of course. If I needed OF depth I would take a shot. But I wouldn’t offer too much.

Jeremy Losak: So what kind of player do you think he’s worth? How much can I get for Seth Smith right now if I’m a fantasy owner?

Connor Wipfli: Well for smith, i would try and get a pitcher for him. Always tough to trade a position player for a position player.

Jeremy Losak: So do you guys see a drop off at some point this season for Smith?

Michael Marcantonini: He has the potential to be a great fantasy steal if he keeps up the production. If I was trying to sell him, I would ask for a starting pitcher putting u the equivalent to what smith is doing, but as a pitcher. I see a drop off, but I see it as a gradual drop.

Dylan Gannon: I see a post all star break drop off, probably finishes at .285.

Michael Marcantonini: I think the power numbers will be decent going forward, but being able to keep that average up is tough.

Jeremy Losak: Fair assessment there. Okay now our last guy: Yangervis Solarte. Has come out of nowhere this season and continues to rake.

Michael Marcantonini: I think he’ll stay productive. He paid his dues in the minors for many years, and he’s not going to let a golden opportunity with the Yankees wither away. He can play a few different positions which will keep him in the lineup consistently.

Connor Wipfli: Thing is for fantasy, ABs are key. If he gets moved up in the lineup, I would say he is a for sure keeper.

Jeremy Losak: What’s interesting about Solarte is that nobody thought much of him because of the two subpar seasons he had for Texas’ AAA team. But in 2010 and 2011, he put up similar numbers to this years’ production for the Twins A+ and AA teams. What’s his value though on the trading block?

Connor Wipfli: Honestly, not much. People will be just as worried as you are because they just flat out don’t know about him.

Dylan Gannon: Im not sold on him. I think you have to trade now while he’s hot.

Michael Marcantonini: Not too high, but I would give up an average hitter or pitcher for him. His position eligibility is great for fantasy. And makes him more valuable.

Connor Wipfli: One thing he does have going for him is that park in NY.

Jeremy Losak: I agree that Solarte’s value as a trade chip really isn’t there because of the concern about his continued production. But are there really any indications that he will not continue to produce?

Connor Wipfli: Crazy small sample size, but it’s just 260 over his last five games.

Jeremy Losak: Position flexibility is definitely a plus. So then let’s look at from the buyers prospective. Would Solarte be a guy worth giving up a mid-level player with the chance of getting this continued production?

Dylan Gannon: Might be unfair for me to say, but I just can’t trust anyone in the Yankees offense

Connor Wipfli: I would say absolutely. Again, going back to lineup positioning and where he hits. If he can be moved up to second or first (very possible with the way Jeter is) then you got yourself a ball player.

Jeremy Losak: But playing in Yankee stadium would just give me more incentive to pull the trigger not less. More HR potential.

Michael Marcantonini: I would take a shot just because someone has to hit for the Yankees and that team has so much potential offensively, there is no reason that Solarte can’t feed off of that. He’ll have some RBI chances and can score a good amount of runs.

Dylan Gannon: But that’s the thing, some RBI chances, he just doesn’t have a lot of help.

Michael Marcantonini: I’m not crazy about him, but I would take a chance if I needed some position flexibility on my roster

Jeremy Losak: Not a lot of help? McCann, Teixeira, Ellsbury, Gardner, Soriano. That’s just the guys who are currently healthy.

Michael Marcantonini: That’s what i look at… The potential in that lineup. Someone will pull away in the AL East at some point, and it could very well be the Yankees.

Jeremy Losak: And Solarte will benefit from it as long as he doesn’t regress.

Michael Marcantonini: Good point. Hitting is contagious.

Dylan Gannon: Potential though, Ellsbury is the only guy I can count on, the rest can be streaky.

Jeremy Losak: But in the end, as a Solarte owner, I probably wouldn’t pull the trigger just because the potential for him to continue his production would not be worth what I would get in return for such a deal. So final verdict: Sell for mid-level prospect, or hold on to and hope for him to continue hitting the way he has?

Michael Marcantonini: I can’t disagree with that verdict. I think both trading him now or holding on with hope of staying hot could both pay off. I say trade him now because I don’t see him being a guy that a couple months down the road you will shake your head over trading him if he gets hot again

Dylan Gannon: ^Yup

Jeremy Losak: Ok so there we have it. Hold on to Tulowitzki, trade Seth Smith while he’s hot, and trade Solarte before he drops off.

Michael Marcantonini: I think that is definitely the way to go

Dylan Gannon: Completely agree

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