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NFL DFS Bargain Bin: Week 7

St. Louis Rams RB Todd Gurley (Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports)

These cheap players will give you the leg up you need to win big.

Daily Fantasy is all about getting points from cheap plays. DeAndre Hopkins isn’t going to win you any money because everyone else is going to have him, too. Ditto for Devonta Freeman, Larry Fitzgerald, among others.

The Bargain Bin is dedicated to helping you find the cap-saving plays that are the key to consistent DFS success. Based on the projections of a statistical model I built for NFL DFS, these players are the ones with the greatest chance of exceeding the expected point totals of their salaries on Fanduel and/or DraftKings.


Quarterback

Brian Hoyer (Fanduel - $6900 // DraftKings - $5300): While the fantasy community has fallen in love with DeAndre Hopkins, they haven’t yet caught on to why he is suddenly so valuable. The Texans are playing at a faster pace (75.67 plays per game, Chargers are 2nd with 70.17) than any other team in the league. As a result, Hopkins is leading the league in targets with 89, 14 more than the next closest player.

The other primary beneficiary of the Texans breakneck pace is Brian Hoyer. He has scored over 17 points in each of his last three starts. Even in a tough matchup on the road in Miami, he should throw enough to get you the points you need for his dirt cheap price on both Fanduel and DraftKings.

Derek Carr (Fanduel - $6700 // DraftKings - $5300)

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Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Chargers have been fairly stingy against the pass in 2015. However, this game is almost certainly going to be a shootout and Chargers’ stud S Eric Weddle has been ruled out with a groin injury. He may not be overly efficient on Sunday, but Carr will likely throw 35+ times and put up the points needed to justify his price tag on both sites.


Running Back

Todd Gurley (Fanduel - $7400 // DraftKings - $5000): Gurley isn’t as good of a value on Fanduel as he is on DraftKings and doesn’t technically qualify for the Bargain Bin based on his Fanduel price. However, he has the potential to be one of the top scoring RB this week and is a fantastic value on DraftKings. The Browns have one of the leagues worst run defenses and Gurley’s backup, Tre Mason, missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. If Mason, can’t go, Gurley will see a heavy workload and continue to showcase the talent that made him the #10 overall pick.

Danny Woodhead (Fanduel - $6000 // DraftKings - $4600)

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Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Melvin Gordon fumbled twice last week and also sustained an ankle injury in the game. There is a good chance he sees a reduced role this week. If that is the case, Woodhead would be first in line to pick up the touches ceded by Gordon in a juicy matchup at home against the Raiders. If you need to save cap space at RB2, particularly on Fanduel, Woodhead is a solid option.

Lamar Miller (Fanduel - $6700 // DraftKings - $4600): Interim Head Coach Dan Campbell showed a renewed commitment to the running game last week by giving Lamar Miller a season high 19 carries. The Dolphins are currently favored by 4.5 points at home against the Texans which bodes well for Miller’s chances to see 15+ touches again on Sunday.

Frank Gore (Fanduel - $7100 // DraftKings - $4900): Gore is highly touchdown dependent, but has the pleasure of squaring off against the porous Saints defense at home on Sunday. The Colts are favored by four points and should have little trouble marching up and down the field. He isn’t going to put up a massive yardage total, but he’s a strong bet to get in the end zone at least once. 

Matt Jones (Fanduel - $5600 // DraftKings - $3200): The Redskins primary pass catching back, Chris Thompson, has been declared doubtful for Week 7. Jones is the most likely candidate to take over the role. Alfred Morris will handle some of the early down work, but Jones will see enough touches in both the run and pass game to serve as a strong punt play.


Wide Receiver

Michael Crabtree (Fanduel - $5900 // DraftKings - $4300): While Amari Cooper will likely be shadowed by Jason Verrett, who has been utterly dominant this season, Crabtree will have a much more favorable matchup. Crabtree is averaging an impressive 9.6 targets per game and there is little reason to think he won’t reach that number on Sunday. A Carr-Crabtree stack will leave you with plenty of cap room to fill your lineup with studs. 


Ted Ginn Jr. (Fanduel - $5300 // DraftKings - $3300)

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Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Ginn isn’t seeing an overwhelming number of targets (averaging 5.8 per game), but is the Panthers clear second option in the passing game behind Greg Olsen. The Eagles are much better defending the run than the pass and the Panthers play calling should reflect that. Ginn isn’t the safest play, but he offers intriguing upside in GPPs.

Michael Floyd (Fanduel -$4900 // DraftKings - $3200): John Brown missed practice on Friday and his status for the Cardinals Monday night matchup with the Ravens is in question. If Brown does miss the game, Floyd is a steal on DraftKings and a nice cheap stack option with Carson Palmer on both sites.


Tight End

Charles Clay (FD - $5500 // DK - $4300)

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Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Through six games, Charles Clay is averaging a respectable 7.5 targets per game. With both Percy Harvin and Sammy Watkins having been ruled out, Clay is a lock for double digit targets. He is a fantastic value on both sites.


Defense/Special Teams

Washington Redskins (FD - $4400 // DK - $2500) - The Redskins will welcome turnover-machine Jameis Winston to town in Week 7. He is averaging 1.6 turnovers per game in 2015. The Redskins defense isn’t elite, but it is solid and has the advantage of playing at home. If the Redskins can get out to an early lead and force the Buccaneers to throw, they could make a few big plays and be one of the top scoring D/ST.  

Edited by Julian Boireau, Kim Fox.

SQuiz
Who is leading the NFL in targets through six games?
Created 10/23/15
  1. Julio Jones
  2. Demaryius Thomas
  3. DeAndre Hopkins
  4. Larry Fitzgerald

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