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NFL DFS Bargain Bin: Week 11

Kansas City Chiefs RB Charcandrick West (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

The Bargain Bin is back with the cheap plays you need to win big.

Week 10 was a low-scoring week as a whole. It was so low scoring that an injury to a backup QB was arguably the most important play of the week. Antonio Brown has never caught a TD pass from a QB other than Ben Roethlisberger and has been significantly more productive with Big Ben under center. For those of you who faded Brown (myself included) due to Landry Jones starting, your logic was not flawed. Sometimes the results don’t pan out even when the decision-making is sound.

As for Week 11, the Bargain Bin is strong once again. A few of the players are a better value on either Fanduel or DraftKings and in that case the site on which they are a better value is in bold. For a full list of my model’s projections for this week, feel free to reach out on twitter @mrosekNFL.


Quarterback

Alex Smith (Fanduel - $6200 // DraftKings - $5000): Alex Smith isn’t the sexiest option in the world, but he is simply too cheap to ignore. He is averaging roughly 17 points on both sites which is more than enough to validate his price. Saving money at QB is almost always a smart idea, and Smith allows you to do just that. 

Matthew Stafford (FD - $7000 // DK - $5400)

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Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

To say that Stafford has had a disappointing season would be an understatement. However, there is hope this week. The Lions’ running game has been non-existent all season and the Raiders have a below average pass defense. My model is projecting the Lions to throw 43.4 times this week, tops in the league. Stafford could have a big game if he is efficient and has a reliable floor due to his volume.

Honorable Mention: Tyrod Taylor (DraftKings)


Running Back

Charcandrick West (FD - $7100 // DK - $4500): West has been a pleasant surprise for the Chiefs as well as season-long fantasy basement dwellers who were lucky enough to scoop him up off waivers. He’s had over 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown each of his last three games while averaging 25 touches. 

West’s Fanduel price is solid and definitely usable, but his DraftKings price is a thing of beauty. He will be highly owned on DraftKings and for good reason. His ownership percentage may be a bit lower on Fanduel which may make him an appealing tournament option.

Jonathan Stewart (FD - $7000 // DK - $4400):  Stewart has been a workhorse of late, carrying the ball 20+ times in five straight games. He doesn’t offer much in the passing game but his volume is appealing for cash games on DraftKings. There’s a good chance he gets in the end zone at home against the Redskins. Even if he doesn’t, he should post a decent yardage total.

Honorable Mention: Latavius Murray (FanDuel)


Wide Receiver

Stevie Johnson (FD - $5600 // DK - $3900)

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Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Stevie J didn’t have quite the performance owners were hoping for in the Chargers first game without Keenan Allen (seven catches for 68 yards on ten targets). Despite the semi-letdown, there is still reason for optimism. 

Johnson is the clear WR1 in San Diego with Keenan Allen out for the season and Malcolm Floyd and Ladarius Green banged up. Double digit targets is a more than reasonable expectation again this week.  Johnson is an outstanding value on both sites.

Danny Amendola (FD - $6100 // DK - $4000): While some will shy away from Amendola after prematurely jumping on the James White bandwagon, you shouldn’t. White was believed to be in line to absorb many of Dion Lewis‘ touches last week after Lewis went down with injury. That didn’t happen. White finished with one catch and one carry.

The difference between White and Danny Amendola is that Amendola had a role in the Patriots offense before Julian Edelman broke his foot. Now that Edelman is out, its highly unlikely that Amendola sees less than the seven targets he has averaged over his last five games. He has a respectable floor for cheap, particularly on DraftKings.


Tight End

Travis Kelce (FD - $5700 // DK - $4700)

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Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Fantasy football is more about opportunity than talent, but Kelce is too talented to be this cheap in a plus matchup. For reasons we may never understand, Kelce has been criminally underutilized by the Chiefs which has led to his price declining throughout the season. 

Chargers’ shut-down CB Jason Verrett is expected to shadow Jeremy Maclin. If that is the case, that would leave Kelce in line for a slight bump in usage. An Alex Smith - Kelce stack leaves plenty of cap space to fill out a dangerous tournament lineup.

Eric Ebron (FD - $5400 // DK - $3500): Ebron had a game to forget last week, committing three drops. On the bright side, he saw eight targets and has the pleasure of facing the Raiders anemic TE defense this week. His floor is low so he’s not a recommended cash game play, but a Stafford-Ebron stack offers appealing tournament upside if he can get into the end zone.


Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens (FD - $4100 // DK - $2700): The Ravens defense has been subpar to this point in the season and for that reason they are cheap on both sites. This week they have the pleasure of playing at home against a Rams offense led by newly-minted starter Case Keenum. They’re a little too risky for cash games but are an intriguing tournament play if you are out of cap space.

Edited by Dylan Horowitz, Julian Boireau.

SQuiz
Who is the NFL leader in targets per game?
Created 11/20/15
  1. Julio Jones
  2. DeAndre Hopkins
  3. Brandon Marshall
  4. Antonio Brown

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