Who are some good targets in DFS for the AT&T Byron Nelson?
This week we head to Irving, Texas where defending champion Steven Bowditch hopes to end his slump and regain his form. With six missed cuts and a four-round total of +37 in his last seven tournaments, it isn’t surprising to see that Bowditch is the cheapest defending champion in a long time at $6,200. The field is relatively weak, but there is still plenty of talent, including Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, and Matt Kuchar.
Dustin Johnson ($11,900): DJ is the chalk play this week and for good reason. He has made 10-of-10 cuts this year, including eight top 20s. He also is 6-for-6 at making the cut at this event, with four top 10s. He’s my pick to win, and he’s the player to pay up for.
Marc Leishman ($9,500): Leishman’s course history is very inconsistent, with two missed cuts and three top 15s in the last five years. He is statistically elite for the course, ranking top 35 in Strokes Gained: Putting; Total Driving; Par 4 Scoring Average; Parbreakers; and Scrambling. He is also ranked 54th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green. He is also a specialist for the course, performing better on bentgreen, on par 70s, against weak fields, and on courses with hard fairways. He has made six of his last seven cuts, finishing T-30th or better in five of them.
Ryan Palmer ($8,900): In the last five years at this event, Palmer is 5-for-5 making the cut, with no finishes outside the top 35. He is also on a streak of 12 consecutive made cuts, with his last two being top 25s. He should be a lock to make the weekend, and he has solid upside as well.
Scott Piercy ($8,000): This season, Piercy has made 11-of-12 cuts, including four in a row. He hasn’t finished outside the top 30 in his last four attempts. He also hasn’t played at this event since 2013, but his last three appearances here were 5th, 15th, and 26th. He stated on twitter that he feels this is the course he could get his first win at. I have him locked in for cash games and GPPs this week.
Jhonattan Vegas ($7,100): Vegas has been in good form lately, making six of his last seven cuts. He’s also three-for-three at this course, but hasn’t finished inside the top 60. However, strong stats support that he should be able to finish better than usual, as he is ranked inside the top 75 in both Strokes Gained categories, Total Driving, Par 4 Scoring Average, and Par Breakers.
Tim Wilkinson ($6,800): There is a lot of reason to like Wilkinson this week, but I have trouble trusting him to not disappoint. He is 9-for-11 making the cut this season, including making his last four in a row. Three of those four have been top 30s. His last two appearances at this tournament have resulted in a missed cut and a T-22nd. In addition, he is a specialist for the course, as he performs much better on par 70s, at tournaments with weak fields, and on courses with hard to hit fairways. He also ranks top 10 in Strokes Gained: Putting; Par 4 Scoring Average; and Scrambling. It seems likely he’ll be around for the weekend.
Jerry Kelly ($6,700): Kelly has been consistent this season, having made 11 of 13 cuts. He is coming in off a strong finish at The Players, finishing T-19th. He also is four for four making the cut at this event, with three of those finishes being top 30s. Although he is not statistically strong, he seems to love this course, and has been good all year for a made cut.
Edited by Jeremy Losak.
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- Steven Bowditch
- Jordan Spieth
- Dustin Johnson
- Rory McIlroy